The relevance of the Clark-Fisher thesis in the Indian context: can the service-led growth cease the demographic dividend?

Abstract

The Indian economy has experienced a structural transformation that does not seem to align with the thesis independently propounded by economists Clark and Fisher. This paper brings about a thorough discussion of how India failed to follow this thesis. Mainly the service sector growth and a vague stagnancy of the industrial sector, derails India when it comes to following the thesis. The discussion has also been done taking in concern the effects that the 1991 policies has in this regard. Inferences say that it has only intensified this process. When it comes to the aspect of demographic dividend see that only the service sector-led growth is not enough to mitigate the employment posed by it. Because the growth in the service sector has come only with regards to GDP but not employment. This paper hence has been made with special attention towards GDP and Employment in India for a period of 30 years.